Moore

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RESEARCH IN PROGRESS

Eliciting and modeling probability distributions (with Joe Tidwell and Tom Wallsten)

We demonstrate the viability of asking people to report probability distributions and then aggregate across people to specify a consensus distribution.

Misconceptions of chance: Evidence from an integrated experiment (with Dan Benjamin and Matthew Rabin)

We demonstrate that the same individuals hold biased beliefs about chance processes that are mutually incompatible: the “gambler’s fallacy” and the “non-belief in the law of large numbers.”  We conclude that these biases cannot be rationalized with some quirkily charming set of idiosyncratic beliefs.  The results invite the conclusion that people are stupid (at least when it comes to understanding chance).

Motivation and overconfidence (with Jenn Logg and Uriel Haran)

We mostly fail to find effects of motivation on overconfidence.  The one exception is overplacement on in vague domains assessed with vague measures.  The results lead us to question the importance of motivational influences on most published findings of overconfidence.

 

JOURNAL PUBLICATIONS (in reverse chronological order)

 

Benjamin, D. J. et al. (2017). Redefine statistical significance.  Nature Human Behavior.

 

Rogers, T., Norton, M. I., & Moore, D. A. (2017).  The belief in a favorable future.  Psychological Science, 28(9), 1290-1301.

   Data, materials, and pre-registrations: https://osf.io/w38qr/

 

Moore, D. A. & Schatz, D. (2017).  The three faces of overconfidence.  Social Psychology and Personality Compass, 11(8), e12331

   

Prims, J. P. & Moore, D. A. (2017).  Overconfidence over the lifespan.  Judgment and Decision Making, 12(1), 29-41
  Data, materials, and pre-registrations: https://osf.io/nmrp5/ 

 

Moore, D. A., Swift, S. A., Minster, A., Mellers, B. A., Ungar, L., Tetlock, P. E., Yang, H., & Tenney, E. R. (2017). Confidence calibration in a multi-year geopolitical forecasting competition. Management Science, 63(11), 3552-3565.

  Supplementary materials: https://osf.io/ecmk6/

  

Moore, D. A. (2016).  Pre-register if you want to.  American Psychologist,  71(3), 238-239.

 

Moore, D. A., Carter, A., & Yang, H. H. J. (2015). Wide of the mark: Evidence on the underlying causes of overprecision in judgment.  Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 131, 110-120.
  Data and materials, including unpublished studies:
http://learnmoore.org/BDE/

 

Van Zant, A. B. & Moore, D. A. (2015).  Leaders’ use of moral justifications increases policy support.  Psychological Science, 26(6), 934-943.

Data and materials: https://osf.io/c2gaf/                      Pre-registrations: https://osf.io/wptk5/

 

Benoit, J.P., Dubra, J., & Moore, D. A. (2015).  Does the better-than-average effect show that people are overconfident?: Two experiments.  Journal of the European Economic Association, 13(2), 293-329. 

Data and materials: http://learnmoore.org/mooredata/OJD/

 

Tenney, E. R., Logg, J. M., & Moore, D. A. (2015).  (Too) optimistic about optimism: The belief that optimism improves performance.  Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 108(3), 377-399.  

Data and materials: http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/pspa0000018.supp 

 

Cain, D. M., Moore, D. A., & Haran, U. (2015). Making sense of overconfidence in market entry. Strategic Management Journal, 36(1), 1-18.  

Data and materials: http://learnmoore.org/mooredata/SME/

 

Hildreth, J. A. D., Moore, D. A., & Blader, S. L. (2014).  Revisiting the instrumentality of voice: Having voice in the process makes people think they will get what they want.  Social Justice Research, 27, 209-230.  

 

Mellers, B., Ungar, L., Baron, J., Ramos, J., Gurcay, B., Fincher, K., Scott, S. E., Moore, D. A., Atanasov, P., Swift, S. A., Murray, T., Stone, E., & Tetlock, P. E. (2014).  Psychological strategies for winning geopolitical forecasting tournaments.  Psychological Science, 24(5), 1106-1115.  

 

Kennedy, J. A., Anderson, C. A., & Moore, D. A. (2013).  When overconfidence is revealed to others: Testing the status-enhancement theory of overconfidence.  Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 122, 266-279.  

Data: http://learnmoore.org/mooredata/SAB/

 

Swift, S. A., Moore, D. A., Sharek, Z., & Gino, F. (2013). Inflated applicants: Attribution errors in performance evaluation by professionals. PLoS ONE, 8(7): e69258. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0069258  
  Data and materials:
http://learnmoore.org/mooredata/FSD/

 

Mannes, A. E. & Moore, D. A. (2013).  A behavioral demonstration of overconfidence in judgment.  Psychological Science, 24(7), 1190-1197.   
  Data and materials, including unpublished studies:
http://learnmoore.org/mooredata/EJM/

 

Radzevick, J. R. & Moore, D. A. (2013).  Just how comparative are comparative judgments?  Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 122, 80-91.

 

Sah, S., Moore, D. A., & MacCoun, R. (2013).  Cheap talk and credibility: The consequences of confidence and accuracy on advisor credibility and persuasiveness.  Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 121, 246-255.

-This paper won a Best Paper Award from the Managerial and Organizational Cognition division of the Academy of Management, 2011. 

 

Moore, D. A., & Tenney, E. R. (2012).  Why scientific advancement demands the move to open access publishing.  Psychological Inquiry, 23, 285-286.  

 

Anderson, C., Brion, S., Moore, D. A., & Kennedy, J. A. (2012).  A status-enhancement account of overconfidence.  Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 103(4), 718-735.  

 

Eisenberg, J. D., Harvey, H. B., Moore, D. A., Gazelle, G. S., & Pandharipande, P. V. (2012). Falling prey to the “sunk cost bias”: A potential harm of patient radiation dose histories. Radiology, 263(3), 626-628.

 

Bazerman, M. H. & Moore, D. A. (2011).  Is it time for auditor independence yet?  Accounting, Organizations, and Society, 36, 310-312.  

 

Gino, F., Sharek, Z., Moore, D. A. (2011).  Keeping the illusion of control under control: Ceilings, floors, and imperfect calibration.  Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 114, 104-114.  

-An extended abstract of this paper was published in the Advances in Consumer Research, 2008.

 

Radzevick, J. R., & Moore, D. A. (2011).  Competing to be certain (but wrong): Market dynamics and excessive confidence in judgment. Management Science, 57, 93-106.  

-A short version of this paper was published in the Academy of Management Best Papers Proceedings, 2009.

 

Haran, U., Moore, D. A., and Morewedge, C. (2010).  A simple remedy for overprecision in judgment.  Judgment and Decision Making, 5(7), 467-476.  

 

Cain, D. M., Loewenstein, G., & Moore, D. A.  (2010). When sunlight fails to disinfect: Understanding the perverse effects of disclosing conflicts of interest.  Journal of Consumer Research, 37(5), 836-857.

 

Moore, D. A., Swift, S. A., Sharek, Z. S., & Gino, F. (2010). Correspondence bias in performance evaluation: Why grade inflation works. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 36(6), 843-852.

 

Klein, W. M. P., Cerully, J. L., Monin, M. M., & Moore, D. A. (2010). Ability, chance, and ambiguity aversion: Revisiting the competence hypothesis. Judgment and Decision Making, 5(3), 192-199.

 

Moore, D. A., Tanlu, L., & Bazerman, M. H. (2010).  Conflict of interest and the intrusion of bias.  Judgment and Decision Making, 5(1), 37-53.  

 

Moore, D. A., & Healy, P. J. (2008). The trouble with overconfidence. Psychological Review, 115(2), 502-517.
  Data and materials:
http://osf.io/6tecy

-A short version of this paper was published in the Academy of Management Best Papers Proceedings, 2007.

-This paper won the Weil Prize at Carnegie Mellon University. 

 

Radzevick, J. R., & Moore, D. A. (2008).  Myopic biases in competitions. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 107(2), 206-218.  

 

Moore, D. A. & Klein, W. M. P. (2008).  The use of absolute and comparative performance feedback in absolute and comparative judgments and decisions.  Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 107, 60-74.
  Data and materials: http://learnmoore.org/mooredata/RWB

 

Gino, F. & Moore, D. A. (2008). Using final deadlines strategically in negotiation. Negotiation and Conflict Management Research, 1(4), 371-388.

 

Gino, F. & Moore, D. A. (2008).  Why negotiators should reveal their deadlines: Disclosing weaknesses can make you stronger.  Negotiation and Conflict Management Research, 1(1), 77-96.

 

Moore, D. A. (2007).  When good = better than average.  Judgment and Decision Making, 2(5), 277-291.

 

Moore, D. A., Oesch, J. M., & Zietsma, C. (2007).  What competition? Myopic self focus in market entry decisions.  Organization Science, 18(3), 440-454.  

 

Moore, D. A., & Small, D. A. (2007).  Error and bias in comparative judgment: On being both better and worse than we think we are.  Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 92(6), 972-989.    
  Data and materials:
http://learnmoore.org/mooredata/MIO/

 

Moore, D. A. & Cain, D. M. (2007).  Overconfidence and underconfidence: When and why people underestimate (and overestimate) the competition.  Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 103, 197-213.  
  Data and materials:
http://learnmoore.org/mooredata/ENT/

 

Gino, F., & Moore, D. A. (2007). Effects of task difficulty on use of advice. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 20(1), 21-35.

 

Moore, D. A. (2007).  Not so above average after all: When people believe they are worse than average and its implications for theories of bias in social comparison. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 102(1), 42-58.

 

Loewenstein, G., Moore, D. A., & Weber, R. (2006). Paying $1 to lose $2: Misperceptions of the value of information in predicting the performance of others.  Experimental Economics, 9(3), 281-295.

-A short version of this paper was published in the Academy of Management Best Papers Proceedings, 2003.

 

Moore, D. A., Tetlock, P. E., Tanlu, L., & Bazerman, M. H. (2006). Conflict of interest and the case of auditor independence: Moral seduction and strategic issue cycling. Academy of Management Review, 31(1), 10-29.  

-This paper was a runner-up for the Best Paper Award for papers published in the Academy of Management Review in 2006.

-Reprinted in T. Clark & S. Avakian, (Eds.). (2009). Management consulting.  Cheltenham, England: Edward Elgar. 

 

Bazerman, M. H., Moore, D. A., Tetlock, P. E., & Tanlu, L. (2006).  Reports of solving the conflicts of interest in auditing are highly exaggerated.  Academy of Management Review, 31(1) 43-49.

 

Moore, D. A. (2005).  Myopic biases in strategic social prediction: Why deadlines put everyone under more pressure than everyone else.  Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin,31(5), 668-679.  

 

Cain, D. M., Loewenstein, G., & Moore, D. A. (2005).  The dirt on coming clean: Perverse effects of disclosing conflicts of interest.  Journal of Legal Studies, 34, 1-25.  

-Reprinted in Hooker, J. & Madsen, P. (Eds.). (2005). International Corporate Responsibility.  Pittsburgh, PA: Carnegie Mellon University Press. 

-Reprinted again in Arlen, J. H., & Talley, E. L. (Eds.). (2008). Experimental Law and Economics.  Chicago: University of Chicago Law School. 

 

Moore, D. A. (2004).  Myopic prediction, self-destructive secrecy, and the unexpected benefits of revealing final deadlines in negotiation.  Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 94(2), 125-139. 

 

Moore, D. A. & Loewenstein, G. (2004).  Self-interest, automaticity, and the psychology of conflict of interest.  Social Justice Research, 17(2), 189-202.  

 

Loewenstein, G. & Moore, D. A. (2004).  When ignorance is bliss: Information exchange and inefficiency in bargaining.  Journal of Legal Studies, 33(1), 37-58.  

-Reprinted in Arlen, J. H., & Talley, E. L. (Eds.). (2008).  Experimental Law and Economics.  Chicago: University of Chicago Law School. 

 

Moore, D. A. (2004). The unexpected benefits of final deadlines in negotiation.  Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 40(1), 121-127.

-A short version of this paper was published in the Academy of Management Best Papers Proceedings, 2000.

 

Moore, D. A. & Kim, T. G. (2003).  Myopic social prediction and the solo comparison effect.  Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 85(6), 1121-1135.

 

Wade-Benzoni, K. A., Hoffman, A., Thompson, L. L., Moore, D. A., Gillespie, J. J., & Bazerman, M. H. (2002).  Barriers to resolution in ideologically-based negotiations: The role of values and institutions. Academy of Management Review, 27(1), 41-57.  

-This paper was a finalist for the Best Paper Award for papers published in the Academy of Management Review in 2002.

 

Wade-Benzoni, K. A., Okumura, T., Brett, J. M., Moore, D. A., Tenbrunsel, A. E., & Bazerman, M. H. (2002). Cognitions and behavior in asymmetric social dilemmas: A comparison of two cultures.  Journal of Applied Psychology, 87(1), 87-95.  

 

Bazerman, M. H., Curhan, J. R., Moore, D. A., & Valley, K. L. (2000). Negotiation. Annual Review of Psychology, 51, 279-314.  

Bazerman, M. H., Moore, D. A., & Gillespie, J. J.  (1999). The human mind as a barrier to wiser environmental agreements. American Behavioral Scientist, 42(8), 1277-1300.

 

Bazerman, M. H., Moore, D. A., Tenbrunsel, A. E., Wade-Benzoni, K. A., & Blount, S. (1999).  Explaining how preferences change across joint versus separate evaluation. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 39, 41-58.  

-Reprinted in Bazerman, M. H. (Ed.). (2005).  Negotiation, Decision Making, and Conflict Management (Vol. 1).  Cheltenham, England: Elgar. 

 

Hoffman, A., Gillespie, J. J., Moore, D. A., Wade-Benzoni, K. A., Thompson, L., & Bazerman, M. H. (1999).  A mixed-motive perspective on the economics versus environment debate. American Behavioral Scientist, 42(8), 1254-1276.  

 

Moore, D. A. (1999).  Order effects in preference judgments: Evidence for context-dependence in the generation of preferences. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 78(2), 146-165.

 

Moore, D. A., Kurtzberg, T. R., Fox, C., & Bazerman, M. H. (1999).  Positive illusions and biases of prediction in mutual fund investment decisions. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 79(2), 95-114.

-Reprinted in De Bondt, W. (Ed.). (2005). The Psychology of World Equity MarketsCamberly, England: Edward Elgar. 

 

Moore, D. A., Kurtzberg, T. R., Thompson, L., & Morris, M. W.  (1999). The long and short routes to success in electronically-mediated negotiations: Group affiliations and good vibrations. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 77(1), 22-43.  

 

Moore, D. A., & Murnighan, J. K.  (1999). Alternative models of the future of negotiation research. Negotiation Journal, October, 341-347.

 

Messick, D. M., Moore, D. A., & Bazerman, M. H. (1997).  Ultimatum bargaining with a group: Underestimating the importance of the decision rule.  Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 69(2), 87-101.

 

BOOKS

 

Bazerman, M. H. & Moore, D. A. (2013).  Judgment in managerial decision making (8th Edition).  New York: Wiley. 

 

Moore, D. A. (Editor). (2011). Managerial decision making. Camberly, England: Elgar.

 

Moore, D. A., Cain, D. M., Loewenstein, G., & Bazerman, M. H. (Editors). (2005). Conflicts of interest. New York: Cambridge University Press.

 

CHAPTERS IN EDITED BOOKS

 

Moore, D. A., Tenney, E. R., & Haran, U. (in press).  Overprecision in judgment.  In G. Wu and G. Keren (Eds.), Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making.  New York: Wiley.

 

Moore, D. A. (2013).  Expectations. In M. Augier and D. J. Teece (Eds.), Palgrave Encyclopedia of Strategic Management.

 

Moore, D. A. & Tenney, E. R. (2012).  Time pressure, performance, and productivity.  In M. A. Neale and E. A. Mannix, (Eds.), Research on Managing Groups and Teams (p. 305-326).  Bingley, UK: Emerald.

 

Swift, S. A., & Moore, D. A. (2012).  Bluffing, agonism, and the role of overconfidence in negotiation.  In G. Bolton & R. Croson (Eds.), Oxford Handbook of Economic Conflict Resolution (pp. 266-278).  Oxford University Press.

 

Moore, D. A., & Swift, S. A. (2010).  The three faces of overconfidence in organizations.  In D. De Cremer, R. van Dick, & J. K. Murnighan (Eds.), The Social Psychology of Organizations (pp. 147-184). Oxford, England: Taylor & Francis. 

 

Gino, F., Moore, D. A., & Bazerman, M. H. (2009). See no evil: When we overlook other people’s unethical behavior. In M. H. Bazerman (Ed.), Essays in honor of David M. Messick (pp. 241-263).

Excerpted in the Magazine of the Rotman School of Business at the University of Toronto for a special issue on accountability, Fall 2009, p. 29-32. 

 

Moore, D. A., & Flynn, F. J. (2008). The case for behavioral decision research in organizational behavior. In A. P. Brief & J. Walsh (Eds.), Academy of Management Annals, 2(1), 399-431. Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.

 

Moore, D. A., & Small, D. A. (2008). When it's rational for the majority to believe that they are better than average. In J. I. Krueger (Ed.), Rationality and social responsibility: Essays in honor of Robyn M. Dawes. Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.

Data and materials: http://learnmoore.org/mooredata/MPS/

 

Moore, D. A. (2005). Conflicts of interest in accounting. In D. A. Moore, D. M. Cain, G. Loewenstein & M. H. Bazerman (Eds.), Conflicts of Interest. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

 

Cain, D., Loewenstein, G., & Moore, D. A. (2005). Coming clean but playing dirtier: Perverse consequences of disclosing conflicts of interest. In D. A. Moore, D. M. Cain, G. Loewenstein & M. H. Bazerman (Eds.), Conflicts of Interest. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

 

Moore, D. A. (2004).  Prospect theory.  In N. Nicholson, P. G. Audia, & M. M. Pillutla (Eds.).  Blackwell Encyclopedic Dictionary of Management: Organizational Behavior (2nd Edition).  Oxford, England: Blackwell. 

 

Bazerman, M. H., Curhan, J. R., & Moore, D. A. (2000).  The death and rebirth of the social psychology of negotiations.  In M. Clark & G. Fletcher (Eds.), Blackwell handbook of social psychology: Interpersonal Processes (pp. 196-228).  Oxford, England: Blackwell.

Reprinted in Bazerman, M. H. (Ed.). (2005).  Negotiation, Decision Making, and Conflict Management (Vol. 1). Cheltenham, England: Elgar. 

 

Kurtzberg, T. R., Moore, D. A., Valley, K., & Bazerman, M. H. (1999).  Agents in negotiations: Towards testable propositions.   In L. Susskind & R. Mnookin (Eds.), Negotiating on behalf of others: Advice to lawyers, business executives, sports agents, diplomats, politicians, and everybody else.  Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.