Research project:
Confidence Calibration in a Multi-year Geopolitical Forecasting Competition
Don Moore, Sam Swift, Angela Minster, Barbara Mellers, Lyle Ungar, Philip Tetlock, Heather Yang, and Elizabeth Tenney
View the paper here
Supplementary materials,
including a full list of the forecasting questions, details on
recruiting methods and research design, some descriptive statistics,
and the full details on the probability training.
Supplementary analyses of confidence and accuracy using different operationalizations of time.
Supplementary analysis of extreme forecasts (forecasts made with probabilities close to 100%)
R code useful for some analyses presented in the paper:
https://github.com/goodjudgment/ACE/blob/master/scoring/crowd_overprecision.R
https://github.com/goodjudgment/ACE/blob/master/analysis/crowd_overprecision.R