Working Papers

Augenblick, N., Backus, M., Little, A., & Moore, D. A. (2025). Assumptions, disagreement, and overprecision: Theory and evidence. Data, materials, code, and preregistrations
Michael, N., BenShushan, D., Bien, J., & Moore, D. A. (2026). Confidence calibration in large language models. Data, materials, code, and preregistrations

Journal Publications (reverse chronological order)

Binnendyk, J., Li, S., Costello, T., Hale, R., Moore, D. A., & Pennycook, G. (in press). Is overconfidence a trait? An adversarial collaboration. Psychological Science. Data, materials, code, and preregistrations
Augenblick, N., Backus, M., Little, A., & Moore, D. A. (2025). Real and assumed information. American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 115, 643–647.
Moore, D. A., Choudhari, R., & Wu, A. (2025). Does the prospect of upward mobility undermine support for redistribution? Journal of Public Economics, 248, 105418. Data, materials, code, and preregistrations
Li, S., Hale, R., & Moore, D. A. (2025). Is overconfidence an individual difference? Judgment and Decision Making, 20(e25). Data, code, materials, and preregistrations
Soll, J. B., Palley, A. B., Klayman, J., & Moore, D. A. (2024). Overconfidence in probability distributions: People know they don't know but they don't know what to do about it. Management Science, 70(11), 7345–8215. Data, code, materials, and preregistrations
Moore, D. A., Schroeder, J., Bailey, E. R., Gershon, R., Moore, J. E., & Simmons, J. P. (2024). Does thinking about God increase acceptance of artificial intelligence in decision making? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 121(31), e2402315121. Data, code, materials, and preregistrations
Campbell, S., & Moore, D. A. (2024). Overprecision in the survey of professional forecasters. Collabra: Psychology, 10(1): 92953. Data, code, and preregistrations
Dev, A., Johnson, S., Moore, D. A., & Garrett, K. T. (2022). Sadder ≠ wiser: Depressive realism is not robust to replication. Collabra: Psychology, 8(1), 38529. Data, code, materials, and preregistrations
Moore, D. A. (2023). Overprecision is a property of thinking systems. Psychological Review, 130(5), 1339–1350. Data, code, materials, and preregistrations
Kotak, A. & Moore, D. A. (2022). Election polls are 95% confident but only 60% accurate. Behavioral Science and Policy, 8(2), 1–12. Data, code, materials, and preregistrations
Moore, D. A., & Bazerman, M. H. (2022). Leadership and overconfidence. Behavioral Science and Policy, 8(2), 59–69.
Moore, D. A., Thau, S., Zhong, C., & Gino, F. (2022). Open Science at OBHDP. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 168, 104111.
Laitin, D. D., Miguel, E., Alrabaah, A., Bogdanoski, A., Grant, S., Hoeberling, K., Mo, C., Moore, D. A., Vazire, S., Weinstein, J., & Williamson, S. (2021). Unlocking the file drawer: A RARE framework to normalize complete reporting. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(52), e2106178118.
O'Donnell, M., Dev, A. S., Antonoplis, S., et al., & Moore, D. A., & Nelson, L. D. (2021). Empirical audit and review and an assessment of evidentiary value in research on the psychological consequences of scarcity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(44), e2103313118. Data, code, materials, preregistrations, and supplements
Ryan, W. H., Evers, E. R. K., & Moore, D. A. (2021). Poisson regressions: A little fishy. Collabra: Psychology. Data, code, materials, and preregistrations
Cheng, J. T., Anderson, C., Tenney, E. R., Brion, S., Moore, D. A., & Logg, J. M. (2021). The social transmission of overconfidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 150(1), 157–186. Data
Ebersole, C. R., et al. (2020). Many Labs 5: Testing pre-data collection peer review as an intervention to increase replicability. Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 3(3), 309–331.
Mathur, M. B. et al. (2020). Many Labs 5: Registered multisite replication of the tempting-fate effects in Risen and Gilovich (2008). Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science.
Moore, D. A., & Schatz, D. (2020). Overprecision increases subsequent surprise. PLOS One, 15(7): e0227084. Data, code, materials, and preregistrations
Christensen, G., Dafoe, A., Miguel, E., Moore, D. A., & Rose, A. K. (2019). A study of the impact of data sharing on article citations using journal policies as a natural experiment. PLoS One, 14(12). Data, materials, and preregistrations
Logg, J. M., Minson, J. A., & Moore, D. A. (2019). Algorithm appreciation: People prefer algorithmic to human judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 151, 90–103. Data, materials, and preregistrations
Tenney, E. R., Meikle, N. L., Hunsaker, D., Moore, D. A., & Anderson, C. (2019). Is overconfidence a social liability? The effect of verbal versus nonverbal expressions of confidence. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 116(3), 396–415.
Moore, D. A., Dev, A. S., & Goncharova, E. Y. (2018). Overconfidence across cultures. Collabra: Psychology, 4(1), 36. Data, materials, and preregistrations
Logg, J. M., Haran, U., & Moore, D. A. (2018). Is overconfidence a motivated bias? Experimental evidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 147(10), 1445–1465. Data, materials, and preregistrations
Perfecto, H., Nelson, L. D., & Moore, D. A. (2018). The category size bias: A mere misunderstanding. Judgment and Decision Making, 13(2), 170–184. Data, materials, and preregistrations
Benjamin, D. J., et al. (2018). Redefine statistical significance. Nature Human Behaviour, 2, 6–10.
Moore, D. A., Swift, S. A., Minster, A., Mellers, B. A., Ungar, L., Tetlock, P. E., Yang, H., & Tenney, E. R. (2017). Confidence calibration in a multi-year geopolitical forecasting competition. Management Science, 63(11), 3552–3565. Supplementary materials
Rogers, T., Norton, M. I., & Moore, D. A. (2017). The belief in a favorable future. Psychological Science, 28(9), 1290–1301. Data, materials, and preregistrations
Moore, D. A. & Schatz, D. (2017). The three faces of overconfidence. Social Psychology and Personality Compass.
Prims, J. P. & Moore, D. A. (2017). Overconfidence over the lifespan. Judgment and Decision Making, 12(1), 29–41. Data, materials, and preregistrations
Moore, D. A. (2016). Pre-register if you want to. American Psychologist, 71(3), 238–239.
Moore, D. A., Carter, A., & Yang, H. H. J. (2015). Wide of the mark: Evidence on the underlying causes of overprecision in judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 131, 110–120. Data and materials, including unpublished studies
Van Zant, A. B. & Moore, D. A. (2015). Leaders' use of moral justifications increases policy support. Psychological Science, 26(6), 934–943. Data and materials
Benoit, J.-P., Dubra, J., & Moore, D. A. (2015). Does the better-than-average effect show that people are overconfident?: Two experiments. Journal of the European Economic Association, 13(2), 293–329. Data and materials
Tenney, E. R., Logg, J. M., & Moore, D. A. (2015). (Too) optimistic about optimism: The belief that optimism improves performance. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 108(3), 377–399.
Cain, D. M., Moore, D. A., & Haran, U. (2015). Making sense of overconfidence in market entry. Strategic Management Journal, 36(1), 1–18. Data and materials
Hildreth, J. A. D., Moore, D. A., & Blader, S. L. (2014). Revisiting the instrumentality of voice: Having voice in the process makes people think they will get what they want. Social Justice Research, 27, 209–230.
Mellers, B., Ungar, L., Baron, J., Ramos, J., Gurcay, B., Fincher, K., Scott, S. E., Moore, D. A., et al. (2014). Psychological strategies for winning geopolitical forecasting tournaments. Psychological Science, 24(5), 1106–1115. Data and materials
Kennedy, J. A., Anderson, C. A., & Moore, D. A. (2013). When overconfidence is revealed to others: Testing the status-enhancement theory of overconfidence. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 122, 266–279. Data
Swift, S. A., Moore, D. A., Sharek, Z., & Gino, F. (2013). Inflated applicants: Attribution errors in performance evaluation by professionals. PLOS One, 8(7). Data and materials
Mannes, A. E. & Moore, D. A. (2013). A behavioral demonstration of overconfidence in judgment. Psychological Science, 24(7), 1190–1197. Data and materials, including unpublished studies
Radzevick, J. R. & Moore, D. A. (2013). Just how comparative are comparative judgments? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 122, 80–91.
Sah, S., Moore, D. A., & MacCoun, R. (2013). Cheap talk and credibility: The consequences of confidence and accuracy on advisor credibility and persuasiveness. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 121, 246–255. Best Paper Award, Managerial and Organizational Cognition division, Academy of Management, 2011.
Moore, D. A., & Tenney, E. R. (2012). Why scientific advancement demands the move to open access publishing. Psychological Inquiry, 23, 285–286.
Anderson, C., Brion, S., Moore, D. A., & Kennedy, J. A. (2012). A status-enhancement account of overconfidence. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 103(4), 718–735.
Eisenberg, J. D., Harvey, H. B., Moore, D. A., Gazelle, G. S., & Pandharipande, P. V. (2012). Falling prey to the sunk cost bias: A potential harm of patient radiation dose histories. Radiology, 263(3), 626–628.
Bazerman, M. H. & Moore, D. A. (2011). Is it time for auditor independence yet? Accounting, Organizations, and Society, 36, 310–312.
Gino, F., Sharek, Z., Moore, D. A. (2011). Keeping the illusion of control under control: Ceilings, floors, and imperfect calibration. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 114, 104–114.
Radzevick, J. R., & Moore, D. A. (2011). Competing to be certain (but wrong): Market dynamics and excessive confidence in judgment. Management Science, 57, 93–106. Data and materials
Haran, U., Moore, D. A., and Morewedge, C. (2010). A simple remedy for overprecision in judgment. Judgment and Decision Making, 5(7), 467–476.
Cain, D. M., Loewenstein, G., & Moore, D. A. (2010). When sunlight fails to disinfect: Understanding the perverse effects of disclosing conflicts of interest. Journal of Consumer Research, 37(5), 836–857.
Moore, D. A., Swift, S. A., Sharek, Z. S., & Gino, F. (2010). Correspondence bias in performance evaluation: Why grade inflation works. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 36(6), 843–852.
Klein, W. M. P., Cerully, J. L., Monin, M. M., & Moore, D. A. (2010). Ability, chance, and ambiguity aversion: Revisiting the competence hypothesis. Judgment and Decision Making, 5(3), 192–199.
Moore, D. A., Tanlu, L., & Bazerman, M. H. (2010). Conflict of interest and the intrusion of bias. Judgment and Decision Making, 5(1), 37–53.
Moore, D. A., & Healy, P. J. (2008). The trouble with overconfidence. Psychological Review, 115(2), 502–517. Data and materials · Weil Prize, Carnegie Mellon University.
Radzevick, J. R., & Moore, D. A. (2008). Myopic biases in competitions. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 107(2), 206–218.
Moore, D. A. & Klein, W. M. P. (2008). The use of absolute and comparative performance feedback in absolute and comparative judgments and decisions. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 107, 60–74. Data and materials
Gino, F. & Moore, D. A. (2008). Using final deadlines strategically in negotiation. Negotiation and Conflict Management Research, 1(4), 371–388.
Gino, F. & Moore, D. A. (2008). Why negotiators should reveal their deadlines: Disclosing weaknesses can make you stronger. Negotiation and Conflict Management Research, 1(1), 77–96.
Moore, D. A. (2007). When good = better than average. Judgment and Decision Making, 2(5), 277–291.
Moore, D. A., Oesch, J. M., & Zietsma, C. (2007). What competition? Myopic self-focus in market entry decisions. Organization Science, 18(3), 440–454.
Moore, D. A., & Small, D. A. (2007). Error and bias in comparative judgment: On being both better and worse than we think we are. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 92(6), 972–989. Data and materials
Moore, D. A. & Cain, D. M. (2007). Overconfidence and underconfidence: When and why people underestimate (and overestimate) the competition. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 103, 197–213. Data and materials
Gino, F., & Moore, D. A. (2007). Effects of task difficulty on use of advice. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 20(1), 21–35.
Moore, D. A. (2007). Not so above average after all: When people believe they are worse than average and its implications for theories of bias in social comparison. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 102(1), 42–58.
Loewenstein, G., Moore, D. A., & Weber, R. (2006). Paying $1 to lose $2: Misperceptions of the value of information in predicting the performance of others. Experimental Economics, 9(3), 281–295.
Moore, D. A., Tetlock, P. E., Tanlu, L., & Bazerman, M. H. (2006). Conflict of interest and the case of auditor independence: Moral seduction and strategic issue cycling. Academy of Management Review, 31(1), 10–29. Runner-up, Best Paper Award, Academy of Management Review, 2006.
Bazerman, M. H., Moore, D. A., Tetlock, P. E., & Tanlu, L. (2006). Reports of solving the conflicts of interest in auditing are highly exaggerated. Academy of Management Review, 31(1), 43–49.
Moore, D. A. (2005). Myopic biases in strategic social prediction: Why deadlines put everyone under more pressure than everyone else. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 31(5), 668–679.
Cain, D. M., Loewenstein, G., & Moore, D. A. (2005). The dirt on coming clean: Perverse effects of disclosing conflicts of interest. Journal of Legal Studies, 34, 1–25.
Moore, D. A. (2004). Myopic prediction, self-destructive secrecy, and the unexpected benefits of revealing final deadlines in negotiation. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 94(2), 125–139.
Moore, D. A. & Loewenstein, G. (2004). Self-interest, automaticity, and the psychology of conflict of interest. Social Justice Research, 17(2), 189–202.
Loewenstein, G. & Moore, D. A. (2004). When ignorance is bliss: Information exchange and inefficiency in bargaining. Journal of Legal Studies, 33(1), 37–58.
Moore, D. A. (2004). The unexpected benefits of final deadlines in negotiation. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 40(1), 121–127.
Moore, D. A. & Kim, T. G. (2003). Myopic social prediction and the solo comparison effect. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 85(6), 1121–1135.
Wade-Benzoni, K. A., Hoffman, A., Thompson, L. L., Moore, D. A., Gillespie, J. J., & Bazerman, M. H. (2002). Barriers to resolution in ideologically-based negotiations: The role of values and institutions. Academy of Management Review, 27(1), 41–57. Finalist, Best Paper Award, Academy of Management Review, 2002.
Wade-Benzoni, K. A., Okumura, T., Brett, J. M., Moore, D. A., Tenbrunsel, A. E., & Bazerman, M. H. (2002). Cognitions and behavior in asymmetric social dilemmas: A comparison of two cultures. Journal of Applied Psychology, 87(1), 87–95.
Bazerman, M. H., Curhan, J. R., Moore, D. A., & Valley, K. L. (2000). Negotiation. Annual Review of Psychology, 51, 279–314.
Bazerman, M. H., Moore, D. A., & Gillespie, J. J. (1999). The human mind as a barrier to wiser environmental agreements. American Behavioral Scientist, 42(8), 1277–1300.
Bazerman, M. H., Moore, D. A., Tenbrunsel, A. E., Wade-Benzoni, K. A., & Blount, S. (1999). Explaining how preferences change across joint versus separate evaluation. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 39, 41–58.
Hoffman, A., Gillespie, J. J., Moore, D. A., Wade-Benzoni, K. A., Thompson, L., & Bazerman, M. H. (1999). A mixed-motive perspective on the economics versus environment debate. American Behavioral Scientist, 42(8), 1254–1276.
Moore, D. A. (1999). Order effects in preference judgments: Evidence for context-dependence in the generation of preferences. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 78(2), 146–165.
Moore, D. A., Kurtzberg, T. R., Fox, C., & Bazerman, M. H. (1999). Positive illusions and biases of prediction in mutual fund investment decisions. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 79(2), 95–114.
Moore, D. A., Kurtzberg, T. R., Thompson, L., & Morris, M. W. (1999). The long and short routes to success in electronically-mediated negotiations: Group affiliations and good vibrations. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 77(1), 22–43.
Moore, D. A., & Murnighan, J. K. (1999). Alternative models of the future of negotiation research. Negotiation Journal, October, 341–347.
Messick, D. M., Moore, D. A., & Bazerman, M. H. (1997). Ultimatum bargaining with a group: Underestimating the importance of the decision rule. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 69(2), 87–101.

Unpublished Papers

Campbell, S., & Moore, D. A. High-stakes overconfidence. Data, materials, code, and preregistrations
Moore, D. A., & Chan, M. Overprecision in estimates of physical constants. Data, materials, code, and preregistrations
Donnelly, K. et al. Moral licensing: An empirical audit and review.
Tidwell, J., Wallsten, T. S., & Moore, D. A. Eliciting and modeling probability forecasts of continuous quantiles. Data, materials, code, and preregistrations
Wallsten, T. S., & Moore, D. A. Rolling forecasts. Data, materials, code, and preregistrations