Research
project:
Wide
of the Mark: Evidence on the Underlying Causes of Overprecision in
Judgment
by
Don Moore, Ashli Carter, and Heather Yang
Download the
current version of the paper here
Study 1 (BDE16)
Qualtrics
survey, viewed as a participant: https://berkeley.qualtrics.com/SE/?SID=SV_29uAG3m5Mrt8KnH
The
full code to the
Qualtrics survey
The
20 photos of lottery outcomes we used
Data
file
Study 2 (BDE13)
Qualtrics
survey, viewed as a
participant:
https://berkeley.qualtrics.com/SE/?SID=SV_d72dpbrC7U6mii1
The
full code to the Qualtrics survey
The
trivia quiz
Data
file
Study 3 (BDE3)
Qualtrics
survey, viewed as a
participant:
https://berkeley.qualtrics.com/SE/?SID=SV_8zU7993dx7eCAEk
The
full code to the Qualtrics survey
The slow Quincunx machine (log in with a number between 111 and 999)
The fast
Quincunx machine (now appears not to work any more, but used to be like this one)
Data
file
Study 4 (BDE6)
Qualtrics
survey, viewed as a
participant:
https://berkeley.qualtrics.com/SE/?SID=SV_abM7ZWJ2vShWIxn
The
full code to the Qualtrics survey
Data
file
Study 5 (BDE17)
Paper survey,
viewed as a participant
Data
file
.
.
.
Note that we ran 12 additional
studies that did not make it in the paper:
BDE1 - Demonstrated the
basic effect
Animated
ball drop gif
Results write
up
Data
file
.
BDE2 - Varied the height of the Quincunx (the number of
events)
The
Qualtrics survey
Results write
up
Data
file
.
BDE4 - Frequentistic vs. probabilistic description of
uncertainty
Take
the survey as a participant
The
Qualtrics survey code
Results write
up (pathetically incomplete)
Data
file
.
BDE5 - Varying the cover story: Quincunx vs. coin flips
Take
the survey as a participant
The
Qualtrics survey code
Results write
up
Data
file
.
BDE7 - Varying the cover story: Quincunx vs. jumping bean
Take
the survey as a participant
The
Qualtrics survey code
Picture
of jumping bean
Results write
up
Data
file
.
BDE8 - Varying the cover story: Quincunx vs. jumping bean
vs. dollar lottery
Take
the survey as a participant
The
Qualtrics survey code
Data
file
.
BDE9 - Varying
the cover story: Quincunx vs. jumping bean vs. dollar lottery
Take
the survey as a participant
The
Qualtrics survey code
Data
file
.
BDE10 - SPIES
vs. Confidence intervals with Quincunx vs. jumping bean vs. dollar
lottery
Take
the survey as a participant
The
Qualtrics survey code
Data
file
.
BDE11 - Jumping
bean vs. dollar lottery with vs. dollar lottery without picture
Take
the survey as a participant
The
Qualtrics survey code
Data
file
.
BDE12 -
Multiple choice vs. fill-in-the-blank questions
Take
the survey as a participant
The
Qualtrics survey code
Data
file
.
BDE14 -
Multiple choice vs. fill-in-the-blank questions
Take
the survey as a participant
The
Qualtrics survey code
Results
write up
Data
file
..
BDE15 -
Multiple choice vs. fill-in-the-blank questions
Take
the survey as a participant
The
Qualtrics survey code
Results
write up
Data
file
.
Why didn't
these studies make it in the
paper? The paper is long enough as it is, and we believe the
results of these 12 studies are less interesting and useful than those
of the experiments that made it into the paper. Generally,
results from these 12 unpublished studies are compatible with the basic
conclusions offered by the paper: reported probability distributions
are too wide relative to the true probability distribution, but are so
often centered on the wrong answer that they look overconfident when
measured by hit rates. Many of these 12 studies examined
potential moderators of the effect, where the moderator appears to have
failed.